Pandemic and crime, the way the Covid-19,quarantine and various restrictions also has an impact on crime.
I’ve already done a Coronavirus Self Defence in the city post about how you need to adapt your behaviors to the situation
I know and many users have written to me in private that it is probably a thought that most people do not and I understand it because fortunately as much as we often talk about crime and violence most people live in a safe society.
Now, although it seems strange and incomprehensible to some, this compulsion and quarantine situation as well as it is worth understanding how disease, pandemics and our emotional and media responses at all levels have the potential to increase criminal activity both in the short and long term.
In the other post on The Coronavirus Self Defence I preferred to give you behavioral suggestions but in this post I want to examine what I call reflection of some events that generate precisely for reflection others.
In this case the pandemic of a virus and the quarantine that generates crime.
Self Defence pandemic is not an option but it is a necessity.
These are different types of crime ranging from minor crimes to more violent crime:
To simplify I have divided the crimes into minors and more important but clearly depends on the type of crime that is done because even a crime considered minor can become very serious.
- Those who don’t want to respect quarantine
- Traffic offences
- Attacks on health workers and doctors
- Mall assaults
- Insults and attacks on people deemed infected or carriers of the virus
- Selling masks or other for protection at prices increased by 10 times (I want to add).
Most important crimes:
- Violence for futile reasons
- Domestic violence
- et cetera.
Law enforcement and public safety and personnel during the pandemic
Law enforcement right now are making several “battles” that to simplify are:
- control of the territory to enforce the provisions.
- control and answer calls for major crimes
- try to minimize the exposure of their members to the virus, which makes absolutely sense but is also very complicated.
Ps. If an officer during the pandemic is infected by a person during a normal traffic stop and then is in the car with the colleague and returns to the station, there is a good chance that he will quickly infect others and before there are not enough agents available to cover future shifts etc. it is necessary that they have different safety protocols and equipment as is the case for other people who are currently operating in the field basic functions such as doctors and nurses but not just as those who work in the food supply chain.
This may mean that law enforcement will not show up in person if it is a call where a crime has already been committed that for example is not ongoing or is not particularly serious as it is a low-level property theft that is unlikely to be further investigated, or an act of vandalism, in which the damage has already been done Etc.
In the current situation and context, limiting unnecessary human interaction is largely common sense but also necessary.
This does not mean that the police, operating according to these guidelines, will turn a blind eye to a car that is prohibited from stopping, that is parked badly or that goes faster than usual, etc. where it is obvious that people are in danger, but it is unlikely that they will stop for a minor traffic offence.
Each type of security service has provisions and continues to do its job.
The criminal community in the Self Defence Pandemic
Unfortunately, the criminal community is quick to understand how this change in social policies related to the quarantine for the pandemic can make it convenient and can think and decide that the chances of being arrested for minor crimes such as shoplifting and pickpocketing are greatly reduced, although this is not always true but many offenders take advantage of intermediate situations when events are on the move or there are unrest.
Ps. Attention! Police who do not physically respond to a call for a crime already committed do not necessarily mean that the chances of being caught diminish, etc. but it has only been postponed as a priority.
Some of the information that offenders pass between them is often subject to misinterpretation, and therefore any change in social policy such as quarantine can be interpreted as law enforcement that neglects certain crimes at that time will be seized by the optimistic criminal as an opportunity to assault or do crimes but it is not so.
Surely there are priorities for law enforcement but as you can see there is a lot of attention especially in some sensitive areas but as you know they can not control each area and so it is important that you do your part by adopting behaviors with a higher alert level but some of these precautions for your person or for your good should have done them sooner but now do it anyway with what you have.
Drug dealers and users of substance do not stop using it but maybe the trusted drug dealer and the other part of the cities and with the restrictions can not reach it.
With fewer people around who do not want to get noticed and get arrested and so they also change strategy but at the same time those who use substances want the same and look for them in the surroundings and if they do not work also look for the money to be able to buy it in the surroundings.
For this there is an increase in some types of crime and for this you have to be careful also to violent behavior in the neighborhood due to important changes of emotional control due to lack of substances.
As I described in the post coronavirus self defense in the city.
Social hysteria and domestic violence
Uncertainty, social difficulties, forced confeviances, prohibition of going out, etc. can lead to real outbursts of anger and violence for trivial reasons and for this we need to be very careful.
This pent-up anger in certain contexts can vent.
Economic narrowness and feeling locked at home can lead to different and even violent reactions, as well as forced coexistence between people who cannot stand, etc.
Or think of family members, boyfriends, who are maybe a few kilometers away but can not see each other, etc. although today there are many possibilities for communication and video call.
Now I do not want to list the variables that may be there but there are many but what needs to make you think is that you can witness important quarrels and violence even between neighbors.
All kinds of thefts and scams
In these conditions serial thieves find themselves in difficulty because people are in their homes but at the same time the houses and shops in some parts are isolated and are a temptation for some of these characters.
This is also why they create quarantines to have more control and avoid shop and business slobbers, thefts in commercial premises, etc.
At the same time online scams, scams to the elderly but not only, etc. grow.
We have already seen several hate crimes committed against Asians who, as you can see, have closed all their activities as a precaution because they are somehow accused of carrying and spreading the virus or being genetically predisposed to carry it, etc.
All themes not based on facts or science but only assumptions.
Hate crimes are precisely those acts based on hatred or prejudice and not based on facts or science.
While in your imagination it may seem that these types of crime only affect specific populations, this is not the case and can have a serious effect on the increase in overall crime rates, which ultimately affect everyone such as the case of Lombard tourists who went to Ischia.
Although it is not the legislative solution but it is widely recognized that national television broadcasts and strong social networks as well as clearly social cohesion prevent and reduce crime because information as I am doing with the blog for example, but when you warn people, you do not tolerate certain behaviors this is a first help.
For example, in the case of hate crimes when offenders know that the community has strong social ties on the subject and that it does not tolerate it and that everyone has as a for civic education a certain approach and behavior this causes a reduction in crime rates of that kind because stupid people are fueled by the consent of stupids and ignorance.
Civic education and social cohesion
When incidents such as hate crimes occur in a community, this can signal to potential offenders that there is a lack of social cohesion and collective effectiveness, which ends up encouraging other criminal activities as well, because there is no social cohesion and indifference, translated people turn the other way, it is omertosa.
Beware that see people who are problematic or violent, of a bad nature, see other “bad” people who commit crimes and nobody does anything, they see that if they get away with it, it encourages them to act. It goes beyond civic education.
Those who commit hate crimes or racial crimes operate as if they have been given the green light to commit other crimes, for that is to say, someone who attacks another person based on their ethnicity, etc., or gets away with and/or receives some kind of positive feedback on social media, etc., is likely to believe that other criminal actions in which they might be involved are also condoned as well as just but remember that those who do that kind of crime is a person who tends to be in society to always blame another, and that one could become you one day.
For example, as you have been described by some international newspapers if you went abroad you could be turned away or discriminated against because you come from Italy and you are a sticky, or treated shitty because they think you are a racist (who in turn suffers a racism based on nothing because not all Italians are racist)
Never tolerate and accept the injustices and abuses done to someone else and that you know are not right!
There are several ways to analyze scenarios and this type of risk during a pandemic
You can use scenario approaches, where you can imagine and create possible stories and situations at different levels:
- meso scenario and
- macro scenario.
These differences are important because they go to implement strategies at different levels.
- Macro level can you imagine the impact of the transition from vaccine research and production to focus on the current epidemic and/or how people can respond to a ban on going out, travel, or what can happen if they forced everyone to get a vacc?
- Micro level you can imagine how people can react to restrictions and events for example when they no longer have access to food, due to the closure of shops and/or job loss due to the epidemic, etc. To do this you can also analyze the history of critical situations that have already happened related to serious economic events and environmental disasters, etc.
Increases in violence during the pandemic have a timeline
The increase in violence during a pandemic can be traced on a timeline in associations to restrictions/events, policy choices and duration of the restriction period.
You can then take these decision points and map them by writing under critical variables and actions to be done both immediately and preventatively.
You can include government/policy leaders’ actions and responses in these models, such as:
- what will be the effect of forcing people to stay in the house
- to respect distances
- you can’t move
- to work from home
- or the fact that you can’t work
- to forbid to see your friends like you used to be at the park or in bars
- or what the effect would be if there were not enough resources to treat infected people;
- et cetera.
These are just a few examples but there are hundreds of them that need to be contemplated but can these elements lead to civil unrest and riots if people seeking treatment are to be turned away and there will be enough health personnel to maintain law and order?
Risk analysis with a pandemic
This type of risk analysis usually takes place at the national level but also for specific geographical areas as is happening in Italy where in particular a number of army men have been sent to control the territory alongside law enforcement because there are geographical areas that have a different complexity to be able to control them in case of increased crime rate and management of potential riots.
Now if you think for example now that you already know how some phases have happened, and by performing a risk analysis in the very early stages of a crisis, it may be possible to anticipate some actions compared to the curve of the crisis for example by buying drugs for the flu and colds, masks, disinfectants and stocking up on essential elements over time, rather than improvising at the last turning in panic to find things that you usually found Crowded check-out row, increasing your chances of getting infected.
It can also be useful to equip for example your activity that you can not reach of security systems, your surveillance home, etc., and that is why also on the blog Expert Fighting will be proposed other types of issues always related to security.
Think about how many properties are isolated and unreachable by the owners and usually while you comply with the ordinances many do not and that’s also why there are such strict restrictions to prevent people walking the streets and more easily identifying people who don’t have good intentions.
Most do not understand that local thieves know what are the empty houses at the seaside or in the mountains, or the shops that for days are not reached by the owner with inside the equipment or other.
Now you also understand why the restriction is not just conspiracy as many people think
The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will be felt throughout our society not only for the virus itself but will undoubtedly affect crime rates to some extent as a reflection.
Unfortunately, already today it has big impacts on the economy that starts to slow down or we hope not, the beginning of a new recession due to the effects of the blocks, etc., and it is likely that crime rates will increase because as I already told you in the previous post, those who have certain “spoils” like drugs and continue to have them but can struggle more to work to support the vices.
Thefts in this period increase and it is also the result of “consumers” looking for cheaper commercial goods creating a market for stolen items.
Whereas normally an individual may not want to take the risk of buying or handling stolen goods, when the money is tight, the risk to be taken may seem justified.
While it is likely that in the coming weeks we will be able to give new updates on restrictions and a better idea of the degree and extent of the spread of the virus in the places close to us, it may be worthwhile for all of us to go through a careful analysis of the context and risks, in associations with directives concerning public policies and directives, so that we are more prepared and less inclined to act in a state of anxiety and panic by adopting the strategies that lead to protecting your person and loved ones in even if few daily actions as I have already recommended in the post Coronavisrus Self Defence.
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Ps. Thanks to the superheroes these days!